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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to CIN 26, Center-41-C.Stoll. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 27 for 1 yard (59-J.Rhattigan, 31-D.Dallas).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 69, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 27, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model