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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 5

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 5-J.Myers 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 5, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP