4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 34

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.33 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 44, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model