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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 16 at the 84

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 10-B.Robbins punts 50 yards to SEA 34, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 31-D.Dallas to CIN 43 for 23 yards (32-T.Williams, 84-M.Wilcox).

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.53 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 84, worth -4.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 42, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model