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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 71

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(:22) 10-B.Robbins punts 55 yards to SEA 16, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 24 for 8 yards (26-T.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.81 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 71, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 29, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model