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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 37

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(:48) 5-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model