PHI @ NYJ — 4th & Data

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New York Jets

3-3 HC Robert Saleh

Sunday 2023-10-15 · 16:25 ET MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

PHI

71.0%

NYJ

29.0%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

NYJ offense: -0.206 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
PHI offense: +0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
QB edge to PHI: Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.215 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.129 EPA/dropback
NYJ defense: -0.014 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

PHI 24 17–31

–

NYJ 16 9–23

Projected margin: PHI by 8 Projected total: 40

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

PHI

Jalen Carter DT Out Ankle

Justin Evans S Out Knee

Darius Slay CB Out Knee

Quez Watkins WR Out Hamstring

Sydney Brown S Questionable Hamstring

Marlon Tuipulotu DT Questionable Triceps

NYJ

Brandin Echols CB Out Hamstring

Justin Hardee CB Out Hamstring

D.J. Reed CB Out Concussion

Ahmad Gardner CB Questionable Illness

Nick Bawden FB Questionable Calf

Micheal Clemons DE Questionable Ankle

Xavier Gipson WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 14

–

NYJ 20

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 03:08 TD PHI (3:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to NYJ 1 for 2 yards (47-B.Huff, 57-C.Mosley). FUMBLES (57-C.Mosley), recovered by PHI-13-O.Zaccheaus at NYJ 1. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – NYJ 0
Q2 13:15 FG NYJ (13:15) 9-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. PHI 7 – NYJ 3
Q2 05:38 TD PHI (5:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 0-D.Swift for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-J.Franklin-Myers]. PHI 13 – NYJ 3
Q2 02:34 FG NYJ (2:34) 9-G.Zuerlein 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. PHI 14 – NYJ 6
Q2 00:02 FG NYJ (:02) 9-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. PHI 14 – NYJ 9
Q3 00:48 FG NYJ (:48) 9-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. PHI 14 – NYJ 12
Q4 01:50 TD NYJ (1:50) 20-Bre.Hall up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 14 – NYJ 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 63

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(13:00) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to PHI 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-B.Covey to PHI 9 for no gain (19-I.Charles).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 3

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

(3:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to NYJ 1 for 2 yards (47-B.Huff, 57-C.Mosley). FUMBLES (57-C.Mosley), recovered by PHI-13-O.Zaccheaus at NYJ 1. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 85%

(13:15) 9-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 40

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 52%

(8:32) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 83-T.Conklin ran ob at PHI 36 for 4 yards.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 24

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 21% p(FG) 86%

(2:34) 9-G.Zuerlein 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 17

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%

(:02) 9-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 PHI 4th & 14 at the 48

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 31%

(11:26) 10-B.Mann punts 41 yards to NYJ 7, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-89-J.Stoll.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 NYJ 4th & 18 at the 44

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 21% p(FG) 41%

(7:15) 5-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to PHI 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 89

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(5:38) 10-B.Mann punts 40 yards to NYJ 49, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-22-K.Ringo. PENALTY on PHI-22-K.Ringo, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 49.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 20

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 20% p(FG) 91%

(:48) 9-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 67

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(12:12) 5-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to PHI 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-B.Covey to PHI 18 for no gain (52-S.Eguavoen).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 19

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 92%

(8:17) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 65 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(4:53) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to PHI 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-B.Covey to PHI 20 for 9 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 73 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.47 EP

p(convert) 41%

(1:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep middle to 6-D.Smith (3-J.Whitehead).
See the full breakdown →

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