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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 24

New York Jets 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 9-G.Zuerlein 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.40 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model