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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 63

New York Jets 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to PHI 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-B.Covey to PHI 9 for no gain (19-I.Charles).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.79 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 63, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model