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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 17

New York Jets 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(:02) 9-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +3.51 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 17, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model