Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 67

New York Jets 12 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

(12:12) 5-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to PHI 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-B.Covey to PHI 18 for no gain (52-S.Eguavoen).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.66 EP
74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model