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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 20

New York Jets 9 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(:48) 9-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.16 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model