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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 48

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 10-B.Mann punts 41 yards to NYJ 7, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-89-J.Stoll.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.67 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model