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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
@
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2023-10-15 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

IND
41.4%
JAX
58.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Gardner Minshew (IND): +0.133 EPA/dropback in prior starts (IND starting Gardner Minshew in place of Anthony Richardson)

Predicted Final Score

IND 20
–
JAX 23
Projected margin: JAX by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

IND

Braden Smith T Out Foot/Wrist/Hip
Ryan Kelly C Questionable Ankle
Mo Alie-Cox TE Questionable Concussion

JAX

Christian Braswell CB Out Hamstring
Zay Jones WR Out Knee
Walker Little T Out Knee
Davon Hamilton DT Out Back
Devin Lloyd LB Questionable Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 20
–
JAX 37

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:32 FG IND (6:32) 7-M.Gay 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 3 – JAX 0
  • Q2 14:21 TD JAX (14:21) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 3 – JAX 6
  • Q2 14:10 TD JAX (14:10) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 1-T.Etienne. 1-T.Etienne right end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 3 – JAX 13
  • Q2 01:45 TD JAX (1:45) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 13-C.Kirk for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 3 – JAX 20
  • Q2 00:11 FG IND (:11) 7-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 6 – JAX 21
  • Q3 10:49 FG JAX (10:49) 10-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. IND 6 – JAX 24
  • Q3 03:57 TD JAX (3:57) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – JAX 30
  • Q4 14:19 TD IND (14:19) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 1-J.Downs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 12 – JAX 31
  • Q4 07:20 TD IND (7:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – JAX 31
  • Q4 04:55 FG JAX (4:55) 10-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. IND 20 – JAX 34
  • Q4 03:04 FG JAX (3:04) 10-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. IND 20 – JAX 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 44%

    (9:51) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 21-Z.Moss to JAX 40 for 3 yards (33-D.Lloyd).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (6:32) 7-M.Gay 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (3:21) 1-T.Etienne left end to IND 48 for 7 yards (44-Z.Franklin).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:08) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to JAX 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-45-E.Speed.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:52) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to IND 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds. PENALTY on JAX-20-D.Thomas, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at IND 11.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:18) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to JAX 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-83-K.Granson.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 14 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:52) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to IND 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 58%

    (:11) 7-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to IND 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 34 for 8 yards (20-D.Thomas). PENALTY on IND-41-G.Stuard, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 34.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 77%

    (10:49) 10-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:46) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to JAX 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 31 for 6 yards (20-N.Cross).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:15) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short middle to 14-A.Pierce to IND 42 for 14 yards (31-Dari.Williams).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (14:19) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 1-J.Downs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%

    (11:13) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep left intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 31-Dari.Williams at JAX -1. Touchback.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:54) 9-L.Cooke punts 62 yards to IND 23, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 28 for 5 yards (20-D.Thomas).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 75%

    (4:55) 10-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 17 at the 82 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:27) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete deep middle to 86-W.Mallory [95-R.Robertson-Harris].

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 21%

    (1:51) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete deep right to 3-A.Rodgers.