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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 55

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 1-T.Etienne left end to IND 48 for 7 yards (44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.88 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model