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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to IND 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.30 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 28, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model