Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 77

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

(8:46) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to JAX 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 31 for 6 yards (20-N.Cross).

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 77, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model