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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 43

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(9:51) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 21-Z.Moss to JAX 40 for 3 yards (33-D.Lloyd).

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.87 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model