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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to JAX 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-83-K.Granson.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.28 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 32, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP