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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 58

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to IND 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds. PENALTY on JAX-20-D.Thomas, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at IND 11.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.88 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 58, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP