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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Thursday 2023-10-12 · 20:15 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

DEN
23.8%
KC
76.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.152 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.231 vs Russell Wilson (DEN) -0.059 EPA/dropback
  • DEN defense: +0.199 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 18
–
KC 27
Projected margin: KC by 9 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

DEN

Frank Clark LB Out Illness
D.J. Jones DT Out Knee
Baron Browning LB Out Knee
Greg Dulcich TE Questionable Hamstring

KC

George Karlaftis DE Questionable Hamstring
Travis Kelce TE Questionable Ankle
Tommy Townsend P Questionable left Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 8
–
KC 19

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:44 FG KC (5:44) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. DEN 0 – KC 3
  • Q2 03:09 TD KC (3:09) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 19-K.Toney for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – KC 9
  • Q2 00:04 FG KC (:04) 7-H.Butker 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. DEN 0 – KC 13
  • Q3 09:19 FG KC (9:19) 7-H.Butker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. DEN 0 – KC 16
  • Q4 06:11 TD DEN (6:11) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton (35-Ja.Watson). Denver challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-C.Sutton for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – KC 16
  • Q4 02:00 FG KC (2:00) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. DEN 8 – KC 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 55%

    (9:32) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at KC 41 for -3 yards (20-J.Reid).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 93%

    (5:44) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (14:29) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to KC 33, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-M.Washington pushed ob at KC 43 for 10 yards (49-A.Singleton).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 98%

    (8:10) (Field Goal formation) Direct snap to 83-N.Gray. 83-N.Gray up the middle to DEN 5 for 1 yard (47-J.Jewell).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to KC 38, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-M.Washington MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 38. 12-M.Washington to KC 38 for no gain (1-T.Smith).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to KC 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 12 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 29 yards to KC 34, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-37-R.Moss. PENALTY on DEN-37-R.Moss, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at KC 34.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (9:19) 7-H.Butker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 41%

    (1:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to DEN 5, impetus ends at DEN 3, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-1-J.McKinnon.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to KC 22, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-M.Washington to KC 47 for 25 yards (48-M.Fraboni; 9-R.Dixon). FUMBLES (48-M.Fraboni), ball out of bounds at KC 47. PENALTY on KC-44-Ca.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 22.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (9:31) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to DEN 27, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims to DEN 39 for 12 yards (43-J.Cochrane).