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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 7

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 7-H.Butker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 7, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP