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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 90

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to KC 38, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-M.Washington MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 38. 12-M.Washington to KC 38 for no gain (1-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.33 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 90, worth -5.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.80 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 47, worth -2.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model