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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 6

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(8:10) (Field Goal formation) Direct snap to 83-N.Gray. 83-N.Gray up the middle to DEN 5 for 1 yard (47-J.Jewell).

The Three Options

GO +3.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 6, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model