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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 70

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to KC 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 28, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model