Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 73

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to KC 22, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-M.Washington to KC 47 for 25 yards (48-M.Fraboni; 9-R.Dixon). FUMBLES (48-M.Fraboni), ball out of bounds at KC 47. PENALTY on KC-44-Ca.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 22.

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.79 EP
65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model