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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 69

Kansas City Chiefs 16 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to DEN 27, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims to DEN 39 for 12 yards (43-J.Cochrane).

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.62 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 69, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 27, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP