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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
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LAC Home

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Monday 2023-10-16 · 20:15 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

DAL
33.6%
LAC
66.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • LAC on 7 more days rest than DAL
  • DAL defense: -0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL offense: -0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Justin Herbert (LAC): +0.107 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LAC defense: -0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 21
–
LAC 26
Projected margin: LAC by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

DAL

C.J. Goodwin CB Out Pectoral
Leighton Vander Esch LB Out Neck
Juanyeh Thomas S Doubtful Hamstring
Chuma Edoga T Questionable Illness

LAC

Alohi Gilman S Doubtful Heel
Deane Leonard CB Doubtful Hamstring
Donald Parham TE Questionable Wrist
Joey Bosa DE Questionable Toe
Nicholas Williams DT Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 20
–
LAC 17

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:34 TD LAC (10:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – LAC 6
  • Q1 06:26 TD DAL (6:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott right tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – LAC 7
  • Q2 00:03 FG DAL (:03) 17-B.Aubrey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 10 – LAC 7
  • Q3 01:11 FG LAC (1:11) 11-C.Dicker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. DAL 10 – LAC 10
  • Q4 11:26 TD DAL (11:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-B.Cooks for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – LAC 10
  • Q4 07:15 TD LAC (7:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 7-G.Everett for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 17 – LAC 16
  • Q4 02:23 FG DAL (2:23) 17-B.Aubrey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 20 – LAC 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 17 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:11) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to LAC 32, Center-44-T.Sieg. 12-D.Davis to DAL 42 for 26 yards (5-B.Anger).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (6:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott right tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (4:51) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to DAL 22, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 43%

    (2:01) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to LAC 2, Center-44-T.Sieg, downed by DAL-83-J.Brooks.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 8 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 56%

    (11:46) 16-J.Scott punts 30 yards to DAL 12, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-45-T.Tuipulotu.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:39) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to LAC 32, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (7:33) 16-J.Scott punts 38 yards to DAL 22, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%

    (2:29) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to LAC 13 for no gain (20-D.Marlowe, 52-K.Mack).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 14 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:09) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to DAL 14, Center-47-J.Harris. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 29 for 15 yards (47-J.Harris).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (7:47) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 5-J.Palmer (26-D.Bland).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 12 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:22) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to LAC 39, Center-44-T.Sieg. 12-D.Davis to DAL 49 for 12 yards (46-M.Jefferson).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (1:11) 11-C.Dicker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:55) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to DAL 21, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-47-J.Harris. Los Angeles Chargers challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to DAL 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-J.Tolbert MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga at DAL 20.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (7:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 7-G.Everett for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%

    (2:23) 17-B.Aubrey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.