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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 1 at the 13
Dallas Cowboys 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7
What Actually Happened
(2:29) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to LAC 13 for no gain (20-D.Marlowe, 52-K.Mack).
The Three Options
GO
+2.96 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.90 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.67 EP
KICK
+1.54 EP
- 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT
-0.58 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
