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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 17 at the 85

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:11) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to LAC 32, Center-44-T.Sieg. 12-D.Davis to DAL 42 for 26 yards (5-B.Anger).

The Three Options

GO -3.43 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.13 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model