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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 67

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(4:51) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to DAL 22, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 25, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP