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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 6

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 11-C.Dicker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.47 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 6, worth +0.64 EP
KICK +2.44 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.25 EP
PUNT +0.51 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP