4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 7

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 5-J.Palmer (26-D.Bland).

The Three Options

GO +3.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.64 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 7, worth +0.29 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model