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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 60

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 16-J.Scott punts 38 yards to DAL 22, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.42 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 60, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 19, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP