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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2023-10-08 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

NYJ
30.7%
DEN
69.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.210 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • DEN defense: +0.166 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to DEN: Russell Wilson (DEN) -0.048 vs Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.197 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 18
–
DEN 22
Projected margin: DEN by 4 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

NYJ

Brandin Echols CB Out Hamstring
D.J. Reed CB Out Concussion
Billy Turner T Questionable Toe
Jarrick Bernard-Converse S Questionable Foot
Carter Warren T Questionable Shoulder
Sam Eguavoen LB Questionable Ankle

DEN

Randy Gregory LB Out not injury related - team decision
Baron Browning LB Out Knee
Javonte Williams RB Questionable Quadricep
Lloyd Cushenberry C Questionable Quadricep
Mike Purcell DT Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 31
–
DEN 21

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:22 FG NYJ (11:22) 9-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. NYJ 3 – DEN 0
  • Q1 07:42 TD DEN (7:42) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 38-J.McLaughlin for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – DEN 6
  • Q1 04:24 SAF NYJ (4:24) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left [96-A.Woods]. PENALTY on DEN-3-R.Wilson, Intentional Grounding, 6 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY. NYJ 5 – DEN 7
  • Q2 12:50 FG DEN (12:50) 16-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYJ 5 – DEN 10
  • Q2 06:44 FG NYJ (6:44) 9-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. NYJ 8 – DEN 10
  • Q2 01:51 FG DEN (1:51) 16-W.Lutz 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYJ 8 – DEN 13
  • Q3 13:39 TD NYJ (13:39) 20-Bre.Hall right guard for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 14 – DEN 13
  • Q3 05:19 FG NYJ (5:19) 9-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. NYJ 18 – DEN 13
  • Q4 12:22 FG NYJ (12:22) 9-G.Zuerlein 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. NYJ 21 – DEN 13
  • Q4 07:31 FG NYJ (7:31) 9-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. NYJ 24 – DEN 13
  • Q4 04:48 TD DEN (4:48) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 82-A.Trautman for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 24 – DEN 19
  • Q4 00:41 TD NYJ (:41) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DEN 34 for -7 yards (56-Qu.Williams). FUMBLES (56-Qu.Williams) [56-Qu.Williams], RECOVERED by NYJ-37-Bry.Hall at DEN 39. 37-Bry.Hall for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 30 – DEN 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:00) 5-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to DEN 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-M.Mims MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NYJ-52-S.Eguavoen at DEN 20.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (11:22) 9-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:33) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to DEN 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (12:50) 16-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (6:44) 9-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (1:51) 16-W.Lutz 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:45) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to NYJ 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to NYJ 33, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 47 for 14 yards (20-M.Burton). FUMBLES (20-M.Burton), recovered by NYJ-99-W.McDonald at DEN 49.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (5:19) 9-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to NYJ 38, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 82-X.Gipson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-1-T.Smith at NYJ 39.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (12:22) 9-G.Zuerlein 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:32) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to NYJ 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 75%

    (7:31) 9-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.