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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 81

Denver Broncos 13 – New York Jets 18

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to NYJ 38, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 82-X.Gipson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-1-T.Smith at NYJ 39.

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 81, worth -4.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 38, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model