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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 8

New York Jets 5 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 9-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.65 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 8, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model