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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 71

Denver Broncos 13 – New York Jets 8

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to NYJ 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 29, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model