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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 77

Denver Broncos 13 – New York Jets 21

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to NYJ 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 77, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 34, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model