4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 79

Denver Broncos 13 – New York Jets 15

What Actually Happened

(11:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to NYJ 33, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 47 for 14 yards (20-M.Burton). FUMBLES (20-M.Burton), recovered by NYJ-99-W.McDonald at DEN 49.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.80 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 79, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 36, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model