4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 9

New York Jets 15 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 9-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 9, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model