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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2023-10-08 · 16:25 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

KC
61.8%
MIN
38.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.164 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • MIN defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to KC: Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.115 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.210 EPA/dropback
  • KC defense: -0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 26
–
MIN 22
Projected margin: KC by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

KC

Wanya Morris T Questionable Hip
Nick Bolton LB Questionable Ankle
Matt Dickerson DT Questionable Knee

MIN

Marcus Davenport DE Questionable Ankle
Brian Asamoah LB Questionable Toe
Lewis Cine S Questionable Hamstring
Nick Mullens QB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 27
–
MIN 20

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:06 TD KC (10:06) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIN-44-J.Metellus, Defensive Offside, declined. KC 6 – MIN 0
  • Q1 04:06 FG MIN (4:06) 1-G.Joseph 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. KC 7 – MIN 3
  • Q2 12:49 FG KC (12:49) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 10 – MIN 3
  • Q2 08:05 FG MIN (8:05) 1-G.Joseph 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. KC 10 – MIN 6
  • Q2 01:43 TD MIN (1:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 3-J.Addison for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 10 – MIN 12
  • Q2 00:04 FG KC (:04) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 13 – MIN 13
  • Q3 10:13 TD KC (10:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 4-R.Rice for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 19 – MIN 13
  • Q3 02:48 TD KC (2:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 26 – MIN 13
  • Q4 12:15 TD MIN (12:15) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Mattison for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – MIN 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 53%

    (6:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 3-J.Addison to KC 32 for 11 yards (6-B.Cook).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 91%

    (4:06) 1-G.Joseph 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 92%

    (12:49) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%

    (8:05) 1-G.Joseph 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (7:13) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to MIN 29, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 4-B.Powell. PENALTY on KC-31-N.Jones, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 29.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 40%

    (5:06) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 44-J.Metellus. 32-T.Chandler right end pushed ob at KC 33 for 15 yards (23-D.Tranquill).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 91%

    (:04) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:22) 14-R.Wright punts 54 yards to KC 18, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-M.Washington pushed ob at KC 26 for 8 yards (98-D.Wonnum). MIN-42-A.DePaola was injured during the play.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 93%

    (12:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 3-J.Addison to KC 9 for 10 yards (35-Ja.Watson).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:05) 5-T.Townsend punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 89%

    (4:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 3-J.Addison (22-T.McDuffie) [22-T.McDuffie].

  • Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (1:15) 5-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to MIN 16, Center-41-J.Winchester. 4-B.Powell to MIN 19 for 3 yards (35-Ja.Watson).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 72 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (:37) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 4-B.Powell to MIN 31 for 3 yards (22-T.McDuffie).