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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 58

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 5-T.Townsend punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.06 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 58, worth -2.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model