Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 14-R.Wright punts 54 yards to KC 18, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-M.Washington pushed ob at KC 26 for 8 yards (98-D.Wonnum). MIN-42-A.DePaola was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model