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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 24

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(4:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 3-J.Addison (22-T.McDuffie) [22-T.McDuffie].

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.37 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.15 EP