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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 56

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 5-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to MIN 16, Center-41-J.Winchester. 4-B.Powell to MIN 19 for 3 yards (35-Ja.Watson).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.44 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -1.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model