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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 20

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.80 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 20, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model