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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 22

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 1-G.Joseph 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.17 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model