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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2023-09-24 · 16:25 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US ☀️ Clear Spread -11.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

DAL
64.3%
ARI
35.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.153 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Joshua Dobbs (ARI) -0.078 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.166 EPA/dropback
  • DAL offense: +0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DAL defense: -0.135 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 23
–
ARI 19
Projected margin: DAL by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

DAL

Trevon Diggs CB Out Knee
Tyron Smith T Questionable Knee
Tyler Biadasz C Questionable Hamstring
Zack Martin G Questionable Ankle

ARI

Carlos Watkins DE Out Biceps
Josh Woods LB Out Ankle
Leki Fotu DT Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 16
–
ARI 28

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:35 FG ARI (12:35) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney. DAL 0 – ARI 3
  • Q1 06:16 TD ARI (6:16) 6-J.Conner right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – ARI 9
  • Q1 01:52 FG DAL (1:52) 17-B.Aubrey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – ARI 9
  • Q2 12:38 TD ARI (12:38) (Shotgun) 4-R.Moore left tackle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – ARI 15
  • Q2 05:40 TD DAL (5:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 23-R.Dowdle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – ARI 15
  • Q2 01:31 FG ARI (1:31) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney. DAL 10 – ARI 18
  • Q2 00:04 FG ARI (:04) 5-M.Prater 62 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney. DAL 10 – ARI 21
  • Q3 09:30 FG DAL (9:30) 17-B.Aubrey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 13 – ARI 21
  • Q4 09:36 FG DAL (9:36) 17-B.Aubrey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 16 – ARI 21
  • Q4 07:27 TD ARI (7:27) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short right to 2-M.Brown for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-D.Lawrence]. DAL 16 – ARI 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 91%

    (12:35) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:16) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to ARI 28, Center-44-T.Sieg. 83-G.Dortch to DAL 44 for 28 yards (33-D.Clark). PENALTY on ARI-35-C.Matthew, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 28.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 77%

    (1:52) 17-B.Aubrey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 87%

    (1:31) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:37) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to ARI 10, Center-44-T.Sieg. 83-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 29 for 19 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (9:30) 17-B.Aubrey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:34) 16-N.Cooney punts 52 yards to DAL 26, Center-46-A.Brewer. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at ARI 23 for 51 yards (0-Z.Pascal). PENALTY on DAL-50-D.Harper, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 26.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (3:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 18 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (15:00) 16-N.Cooney punts 42 yards to DAL 36, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (9:36) 17-B.Aubrey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.