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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 18 at the 78

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 16-N.Cooney punts 42 yards to DAL 36, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.06 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 78, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 35, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model